However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Although there is a positive trend in the annual total rainfall, the number of consecutive wet (dry) days decreases (increases). Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). 2016). All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. 2015 . Autumn (September, October and November)Autumnis the season of the year between summer and winter. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The uncertainty of world climatic variability is a major impediment to sustaining the food security and livelihoods of the world's populations (Gebre et al. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). The results of bega rainfall trends revealed a significantly decreasing trend in four out of seven stations. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. Here are the average temperatures. The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. Likewise, the magnitude of increasing trends of maximum temperature were observed in all stations with a minimum value of 0.023 C/year in GIN station and a maximum value of 0.21 C/year in ENW station. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. 2014; Kishore et al. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. This cereal crop shows stronger correlation with the kiremit rains. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. 2011; Funk et al. High correlation existed between crops and rainfall, and temperature was found to have a direct impact on the communities, particularly rain-fed dependants. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). According to Al-Bakri et al. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. 2005). Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. 2011; Pachauri et al. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. In a study by Mekasha et al. Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. This process is repeated for the whole data sequence. 5.3.1. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn,temperature shows seasonal variations. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). This 2015). The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. 2007; Fu et al. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). Summary of annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI. Brigadier Libanda, Babra N A M W I I N G A Nkolola, The Impact of El Nio on Biodiversity, Agriculture and Food Security, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Assessing climate change projections in the Volta Basin using the CORDEX-Africa climate simulations and statistical bias-correction, Kofi Antwi Yeboah, Komlavi Akpoti, Eric Mortey, Samuel Akowuah Okyereh, Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections, Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations, Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story, Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system, Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. 2012). Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. 2015). A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. By comparison, time series of temperature indices show decreases in the intra-annual extreme temperature range and total number of frost days, as well as increases in warm nights. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period.
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